During the nineties Colin Powell always stood tall as the voice of reason and reality in the Middle East.
This week Colin Powell told the Aspen Ideas Festival that he had 'tried to avoid this war' and had spent 2.5 hrs trying to persuade George Bush not to invade Iraq. I'm sure he is selling himself short.... I think we can assume with absolute certainty that Powell invested a lot more than 2.5hrs trying to avert the Iraq fiasco.
I can't help feeling that Powell is man of great wisdom and insight with a deep understanding of Middle East politics... I also can't help feeling that he caved in at a critcal period in order to secure his political future. The man with a firm grasp of war realities seems to have been a Bush poodle for the last four years. Only now are we seeing the voice of reason emerge again.
His observation that the 'Sunnis are struggling for power and survival and it's going to be resolved by a test of arms. It's going to be very ugly' is delivered from practical experience; however when the history books are written, will it be OK that a man with so much potential to positively influence events simply became an observer???
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
House price inflation in Ireland, what's the cause?
On RTE1 last night the political affairs program Q&A addressed house price inflation and the possible resulting negative equity that a significant number of Irish householders now face.
The Labour Opposition Leader firmly placed the blame at the governments feet for failing to reign in the 'excessive profit taking' in the Building Industry. What a load of nonsense!
The government are to blame but not because it allowed the building industry to take excessive profits, it is to blame because it stood back and watched the Irish Banking system flood the residential market with cheap mortgage money.
House prices are just like any other market, it is a law of supply and demand. What is different is that buyers don't use cash (by and large) and need to borrow the money from Banks. So if Mr Average is prepared to pay 10 times his/her salary for the average house then it's because a Bank has been prepared to finance this purchase.
Even if Mr Average has reservations about the cost, he is in a catch 22 situation. He/she needs a house and if he doesn't buy then the banks will lend the money to somebody else who will.
The fact is, if the funds had not been available to fuel the house buying frenzy then house price inflation would not have gone crazy...
So why should the Government care what the banks do? Because it directly influences our economy. The US Stock Market crash was driven to a large extent by the availablity of easy credit and look how that ended, a 10 year depression.
Bank lending should not be driven purely by the Banking Corporation's desire to make money. There are very real social and economic consequences to deal with if this happens. Our Government knows this and should have done something about it. Yes, there are lending criteria guidelines etc. but these have been flouted for over 10 years. If the Government had at least ensured that strict lending critera were being adhered to then this would have helped to control the flow of money into property and the resulting flow of profits out the other end would have controlled themselves.
The Labour Opposition Leader firmly placed the blame at the governments feet for failing to reign in the 'excessive profit taking' in the Building Industry. What a load of nonsense!
The government are to blame but not because it allowed the building industry to take excessive profits, it is to blame because it stood back and watched the Irish Banking system flood the residential market with cheap mortgage money.
House prices are just like any other market, it is a law of supply and demand. What is different is that buyers don't use cash (by and large) and need to borrow the money from Banks. So if Mr Average is prepared to pay 10 times his/her salary for the average house then it's because a Bank has been prepared to finance this purchase.
Even if Mr Average has reservations about the cost, he is in a catch 22 situation. He/she needs a house and if he doesn't buy then the banks will lend the money to somebody else who will.
The fact is, if the funds had not been available to fuel the house buying frenzy then house price inflation would not have gone crazy...
So why should the Government care what the banks do? Because it directly influences our economy. The US Stock Market crash was driven to a large extent by the availablity of easy credit and look how that ended, a 10 year depression.
Bank lending should not be driven purely by the Banking Corporation's desire to make money. There are very real social and economic consequences to deal with if this happens. Our Government knows this and should have done something about it. Yes, there are lending criteria guidelines etc. but these have been flouted for over 10 years. If the Government had at least ensured that strict lending critera were being adhered to then this would have helped to control the flow of money into property and the resulting flow of profits out the other end would have controlled themselves.
Monday, July 9, 2007
Sailing cruisers in Ireland...
Sailing cruisers in Ireland... the truth is that it's a damp miserable experience.
All trussed up in heavy waterproof gear waiting for the next pounding wave to flood over the decks. It's for this reason that many years ago I adopted the approach that 'if you're not racing then why go sailing'.
However, every year you're guaranteed one cruisy trip that makes it all worthwhile and will become the trip to remember when senility arrives.
This weekend we had that trip.... we hoisted sails out of Kinsale and left them up with out a single tack or gybe all the way to the safe water mark off Malahide some 25hrs and 170nm later. This involved heading East, North and eventually West. Sunshine, no rain and no waves on deck.
It was a great trip that makes it all worthwhile.
All trussed up in heavy waterproof gear waiting for the next pounding wave to flood over the decks. It's for this reason that many years ago I adopted the approach that 'if you're not racing then why go sailing'.
However, every year you're guaranteed one cruisy trip that makes it all worthwhile and will become the trip to remember when senility arrives.
This weekend we had that trip.... we hoisted sails out of Kinsale and left them up with out a single tack or gybe all the way to the safe water mark off Malahide some 25hrs and 170nm later. This involved heading East, North and eventually West. Sunshine, no rain and no waves on deck.
It was a great trip that makes it all worthwhile.
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